Unsure About the Housing Market? Let's Talk.
Tim Lyon • December 28, 2023
If you’ve been thinking about buying a property, whether that be your first home, next home, forever home, or a home to retire into, the current state of the Canadian economy might have you wondering: Is this really the right time to make a move? There is certainly no shortage of doom and gloom in the news out there.
The truth is, that’s a tough question to answer in the best of times. It’s nearly impossible to know for sure what’s going to happen next with the housing market in Canada. It could heat up or it could cool down.
So here’s some advice. Instead of basing your buying decision entirely on external market factors, like the economy or housing market, consider looking for the answers internally. When you stop looking at the market to determine your timing to buy a home, and instead examine the personal reasons you have for wanting to buy a home, the picture can become much clearer.
Here are some questions to consider. Although they are subjective, they will help bring you clarity. Ask yourself:
- Does buying a property now put me in a better financial position?
- Do I make enough money now to afford a new home and maintain my lifestyle?
- Do I feel confident with my current employment status?
- Have I saved enough money for a down payment?
- How long do I plan on living in this new home?
- Is there any scenario where I might have to sell quickly and potentially lose money?
- Does buying a property now move me closer to my life goals?
- Do I really want to buy now or am I just feeling a lot of pressure to just buy something?
- Am I holding back because I'm scared property prices might drop soon?
There’s no doubt that buying a home can be stressful, but it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place is the best course of action to help you make good decisions and alleviate that stress.
If you’d like to have a conversation to discuss your plans, ask some questions, and map out what buying a home looks like for you, we can address many of the unknowns together.
The best place to start is to work through a mortgage pre-approval. There is no cost for this service, you’ll learn exactly what you can qualify for, and it will provide a lot of clarity about your situation.
You might decide that it’s best to wait before buying, and that’s just fine. You might find that now’s a perfect time for you to buy! If you'd like to talk, please connect anytime. You’re not in this alone. We can work through everything together.
Tim Lyon
Mortgage Consultant
What affects mortgage rates? Does the Bank of Canada rate affect fixed-rate mortgages? These are questions that come up all the time, so in this this post, I’ll explain how fixed and variable rates are determined, why they don’t always move together, and what that means for you as a borrower. But to start with the short answer: While Bank of Canada announcements immediately impact variable rates, fixed rates usually have those expectations already baked in long before the announcement. That’s because fixed rates are forward-looking — they reflect where markets think rates are headed, not just where they are today. What Are Fixed and Variable Rates? Fixed Rate The interest rate stays the same for the entire mortgage term. Payments remain consistent, no matter what happens in the market. Variable Rate The interest rate changes during the mortgage term, moving up or down depending on the lender’s prime rate. Payments may stay the same (VRM) or change (ARM). How Do Fixed Rates Work? When you choose a fixed rate, the lender is guaranteeing your rate for the length of your term . To do this, they need to estimate what a fair rate will be over that time. This makes fixed rates more forward-looking — they often reflect not just today’s conditions, but also what the market expects to happen in the future. Key Points About Fixed Rates Strongly influenced by the Canadian bond market (especially the 5-year government bond yield). Lenders adjust their fixed rates based on investor expectations for inflation and future interest rates. Often, Bank of Canada moves are already baked into fixed rates before they happen. Example If bond yields suggest that rates will rise in the next year, lenders may increase fixed rates now, even if the Bank of Canada hasn’t made a move yet. How Do Variable Rates Work? Variable rates move directly with the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. When the Bank of Canada raises or lowers its rate, lenders adjust their prime rate accordingly, and variable mortgages follow. For borrowers, the most important detail is the discount from prime , because that sets the actual rate you pay. For example, if prime is 4.95% and your mortgage is Prime – 0.5%, your rate is 4.45%. The discounts lenders offer change over time. In periods of economic uncertainty, lenders usually shrink the discount they offer, which can make new variable mortgages less attractive even if prime is coming down. Key Points About Variable Rates Directly tied to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, which is reviewed eight times a year. Banks adjust their prime rate in response to these moves. Your actual rate = Prime – discount (e.g., Prime – 0.5%). Example If prime is 4.95% and your mortgage is Prime – 0.5%, your rate is 4.45%. If the Bank of Canada cuts rates by 0.25%, prime drops to 4.70%, and your rate automatically drops to 4.20%. Why Don’t Fixed and Variable Always Move Together? Fixed rates reflect the bond market, which looks ahead at where rates and inflation may go. Variable rates respond directly to Bank of Canada decisions, reflecting current conditions. This is why fixed rates can fall while variable rates stay flat, or vice versa. Next Steps If you’re deciding between fixed and variable, understanding how each is set is the first step. The next is to match the right mortgage type to your budget and comfort with risk. If you’d like to review which option works best for you, I’d be happy to help. Need help with your mortgage? Book a consultation or call 778-988-8409 . Mortgage Term Glossary Amortization: The total length of time it will take to pay off your mortgage completely (typically 25–30 years in Canada). Bond Yield: The return investors get from government bonds. Used as a benchmark for fixed mortgage rates. Discount (Variable Rate): The amount subtracted from prime to determine your actual mortgage rate. Fixed Rate: An interest rate that stays the same for the entire mortgage term. Mortgage Term: The length of your mortgage contract with your lender (typically 1–5 years), after which you need to renew. Overnight Rate: The interest rate at which major banks borrow and lend money to each other, set by the Bank of Canada. Prime Rate: The interest rate banks use as a baseline for loans, influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. Variable Rate: An interest rate that changes during your mortgage term based on lender prime rates.
When arranging a mortgage, one of the first decisions you’ll need to make is whether to go with a fixed or variable rate. Both options have their own benefits and challenges, and understanding the differences will help you choose the one that fits your financial situation best. In this post, we’ll break down the differences between fixed and variable mortgages, how they’re priced, the pros and cons of each, and what you should consider before making a decision. What are Fixed and Variable Mortgages? Fixed Rate Mortgage: Your interest rate stays the same for the entire mortgage term. That means your monthly payments won’t change, making budgeting more predictable. Variable Rate Mortgage: Your interest rate changes during the term. There are two main types: Variable Rate Mortgage (VRM): Your payment amount stays the same, but how much goes toward principal vs. interest changes as rates move. Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM): Your payment amount itself changes when rates move. How Do Fixed and Variable Mortgages Work? Fixed Your rate is set when you sign your mortgage contract. Payments remain consistent, regardless of whether interest rates rise or fall. Fixed rates are heavily influenced by the Canadian 5-year bond yield. Variable Your rate is tied to your lender’s prime rate, which follows the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate (reviewed 8 times a year). Lenders usually offer a discount from prime, such as Prime – 0.4% . You can often lock into a fixed rate at any time (though usually for a term equal to or longer than what’s left on your mortgage). Penalties for Breaking Your Mortgage Fixed The greater of three months’ interest or the Interest Rate Differential (IRD). IRD can be very costly if rates have dropped since you signed. Variable Always three months’ interest — simpler and usually less expensive. Pros and Cons Fixed Rate Pros: Predictable payments, easier budgeting Protection if rates rise Currently about 1% lower than variable, meaning you may qualify for more Fixed Rate Cons: More penalty risk if you break the mortgage early You miss out if rates fall Variable Rate Pros: Benefit if rates decrease Less penalty risk(3 months’ interest) Option to lock into fixed at any time Variable Rate Cons: Payments (ARM) or interest portion (VRM) can rise if rates go up Less predictable for budgeting Lock-in rates may not always be the best available Quick Summary • Fixed mortgages = stable, predictable, tied to bond yields, but more penalty risk. • Variable mortgages = tied to Bank of Canada, potential savings, lower penalty risk, but less predictable. • VRM vs. ARM = VRM keeps payments steady while ARM adjusts payments with rates. Next Steps Choosing between fixed and variable depends on your risk tolerance, financial goals, and comfort with rate changes. If you’re unsure which option is right for you, let’s talk about your situation and find the best fit. Need help with your mortgage? Book a consultation or call 778-988-8409 . Mortgage Term Glossary Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM): A variable mortgage where payments increase or decrease as rates change. Amortization: The total length of time it will take to pay off your mortgage completely (typically 25–30 years in Canada). Bond Yield: The return investors get from government bonds. Used as a benchmark for fixed mortgage rates. Down Payment: The upfront amount you pay toward the purchase price of a home, expressed as a percentage of the total price. Equity: The difference between what your home is worth and what you owe on your mortgage. Fixed Rate: An interest rate that stays the same for the entire mortgage term. Interest Rate Differential (IRD): A penalty calculation for breaking a fixed mortgage when current rates are lower than your original rate. Lock-In: The option to switch from a variable mortgage to a fixed mortgage during your term. Mortgage Term: The length of your mortgage contract with your lender (typically 1–5 years), after which you need to renew. Prime Rate: The interest rate banks use as a baseline for loans, influenced by the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. Variable Rate Mortgage (VRM): A variable mortgage where payments stay the same, but the principal vs. interest split changes with rate moves. Variable Rate: An interest rate that changes during your mortgage term based on lender prime rates.
